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Technology Review: Forget Curbing Suburban Sprawl

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Technology Review: Forget Curbing Suburban Sprawl
Description
Building denser cities would do little to reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, a new NAS report concludes.
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Even if 75 percent of all new and replacement housing in America were built at twice the density of current new developments, and those living in the newly constructed housing drove 25 percent less as a result, CO2 emissions from personal travel would decline nationwide by only 8 to 11 percent by 2050, according to the study. If just 25 percent of housing units were developed at such densities and residents drove only 12 percent less as a result, CO2 emissions would be reduced by less than 2 percent by 2050.
Original URL
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/23343/?nlid=2323&a=f

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    • Geoffrey Ames Geoffrey Ames
      3 months ago


      The assumptions here are very arbitrary. While the average American commutes 29 miles per day, I live in a densely populated area and commute about 7.5 miles per day, by bicycle. So, assuming that living in more densely populated areas would (could?) reduce personal travel "by only 8 to 11 percent" seems rather pessimistic. With incentives human behavior can be changed. If we run out of oil in 20 years, I'll bet that would change human behavior. And the effective impact of increased demand and decreasing supply will result in price increases for gasoline will be the same as running out of oil. Changing the way we live, the density of our population, is one way we could adapt to a world where gasoline prices will be three or four times the minimum wage. This analysis is based on current realities and has perfect vision for 1950, but no imagination for 2050.
      Environment, Sustainable Development, Futures, Green Cities Coalition, Sustainable Living, Urban Regeneration, Energy, Public Transport

    • Geoffrey Ames Geoffrey Ames
      3 months ago


      The assumptions here are very arbitrary. While the average American commutes 29 miles per day, I live in a densely populated area and commute about 7.5 miles per day, by bicycle. So, assuming that living in more densely populated areas would (could?) reduce personal travel "by only 8 to 11 percent" seems rather pessimistic. With incentives human behavior can be changed. If we run out of oil in 20 years, I'll bet that would change human behavior. And the effective impact of increased demand and decreasing supply will result in price increases for gasoline that will be the same as running out of oil. Changing the way we live, the density of our population, is one way we could adapt to a world where gasoline prices will be three or four times the minimum wage. This analysis is based on current realities and has perfect vision for 1950, but no imagination for 2050.
      Transportation Working Group
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