Brainstorm: The Youth Vote 08 - Chronicle.com

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The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (www.civicyouth.org) has posted early results for the youth vote, but because so many votes remain to be counted, it’s too early to make a judgment about turnout. CIRCLE’s exit polling puts the absolute number at 21.6 to 23.9 million 18-to-29-year-olds in the tally. The figures will narrow down once all precincts are in 100 percent and absentee ballots are counted.That means a rise of 2.2 million or more, which sounds like a lot. But part of the gain may be attributed to the raw size of the age demographic in America, which is the largest one since the Baby Boomers. By percentage, the gain looks different. Right now, CIRCLE projects the youth vote as rising anywhere from 1 to 6 points over 2004 (the ratio is calculated as the fraction of total eligible citizens who actually cast a ballot). That puts the 2008 youth vote at 49.3 percent to 54.5 percent.It’s an open question. If the figures terminate at the lower end, a 1-to-2 percent gain over 2004, then all the predictions about the youth vote this time coming out in droves like never before sound pretty darn hollow and hype-like. If the figures terminate a

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