An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning

Description

Your friends and colleagues are talking about something called "Bayes'
Theorem" or "Bayes' Rule", or something called Bayesian
reasoning. 
They sound really enthusiastic about it, too, so you google and find a
webpage about Bayes' Theorem and...


It's this equation.  That's all.  Just one equation. 
The page you found gives a definition of it, but it doesn't say what it
is, or why it's useful, or why your friends would be interested in
it.  It looks like this random statistics thing.


So you came here.  Maybe you don't understand what the equation
says.  Maybe you understand it in theory, but every time you try
to
apply it in practice you get mixed up trying to remember the difference
between

Original URL

http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html

http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html