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The Future of the Desktop

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http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/future_of_the_desktop.php

 

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I have spent the last year really thinking about the future of the Web. But lately I have been thinking more about the future of the desktop. In particular, here are some questions I am thinking about and some answers I've come up so far.

(Author's Note: This is a raw, first-draft of what I think it will be like. Please forgive any typos -- I am still working on this and editing it...)

 

 

What Will Happen to the Desktop?

As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from local desktop applications towards Web-hosted software-as-a-service (SaaS). The full range of standard desktop office tools (word processors, spreadsheets, presentation tools, databases, project management, drawing tools, and more) can now be accessed as Web-hosted apps within the browser. The same is true for an increasing range of enterprise applications. This process seems to be accelerating.

As more kinds of applications become available in Web-based form, the Web browser is becoming the primary framework in which end-users work and interact. But what will happen to the desktop? Will it too eventually become a Web-hosted application? Will the Web browser swallow up the desktop? Where is the desktop headed?

Is the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today?

No. There have already been several attempts at doing this -- and they never catch on. People don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC.

Partly this is due to the difference in user experience between using files and folders on a local machine and doing that in "simulated" fashion via some Flash-based or HTML-based imitation of a desktop. Imitations desktops to-date have simply been clunky and slow imitations of the real-thing at best. Others have been overly slick. But one thing they all have in common: None of them have nailed it. The desktop of the future – what some have called “the Webtop” – still has yet to be invented.

It's going to be a hosted web service

Is the desktop even going to exist anymore as the Web becomes increasingly important? Yes, there will have to be some kind of interface that we consider to be our personal "home" and "workspace" -- but ultimately it will have to be a unified space that all our devices connect to and share. This requires that it be a hosted online service.

Currently we have different information spaces on different devices (laptop, mobile device, PC). These will merge. Native local clients could be created for various devices, but ultimately the simplest and therefore most likely choice is to just use the browser as the client. This coming “Webtop” will provide an interface to your local devices, applications and information, as well as to your online life and information.

Today we think of our Web browser running inside our desktop as an applicaiton. But actually it will be the other way around in the future: Our desktop will run inside our browser as an application.

Instead of the browser running inside, or being launched from, some kind of next-generation desktop web interface technology, it's will be the other way around: The browser will be the shell and the desktop application will run within it either as a browser add-in, or as a web-based application.

The Web 3.0 desktop is going to be completely merged with the Web -- it is going to be part of the Web. In fact there may eventually be no distinction between the desktop and the Web anymore.

The focus shifts from information to attention

As our digital lives shift from being focused on the old fashioned desktop to the Web environment we will see a shift from organizing information spatially (directories, folders, desktops, etc.) to organizing information temporally (feeds, lifestreams, microblogs, timelines, etc.).

Instead of being just a directory, the desktop of the future is going to be more like a feed reader or social news site. The focus will be on keeping up with all the stuff flowing in and out of the user’s environment. The interface will be tuned to help the user understand what the trends are, rather than just on how things are organized.

The focus will be on helping the user to manage their attention rather than just their information. This is a leap to the meta-level: A second-order desktop. Instead of just being about the information (the first-order), it is going to be about what is happening with the information (the second-order).

Users are going to shift from acting as librarians to acting as daytraders.

Our digital roles are already shifting from acting as librarians to becoming more like daytraders. In the PC era we were all focused on trying to manage the stuff on our computers -- in other words, we were acting as librarians. But this is going to shift. Librarians organize stuff, but daytraders are focused on discovering and keeping track of trends. It's a very different focus and activity, and it's what we are all moving towards.

We are already spending more of our time keeping up with change and detecting trends, than on organizing information. In the coming decade the shelf-life of information is going to become vanishingly short and the focus will shift from storage and recall to real-time filtering, trend detection and prediction.

The Webtop will be more social and will leverage and integrate collective intelligence

The Webtop is going to be more socially oriented than desktops of today -- it will have built-in messaging and social networking, as well as social-media sharing, collaborative filtering, discussions, and other community features.

The social dimension of our lives is becoming perhaps our most important source of information. We get information via email from friends, family and colleagues. We get information via social networks and social media sharing services. We co-create information with others in communities.

The social dimension is also starting to play a more important role in our information management and discovery activities. Instead of those activities remaining as solitary, they are becoming more communal. For example many social bookmarking and social news sites use community sentiment and collaborative filtering to help to highlight what is most interesting, useful or important. 

It's going to have powerful semantic search and social search capabilities built-in

The Webtop is going to have more powerful search built-in. This search will combine both social and semantic search features. Users will be able to search their information and rank it by social sentiment (for example, “find documents about x and rank them by how many of my friends liked them.”)

Semantic search will enable highly granular search and navigation of information along a potentially open-ended range of properties and relationships.

For example you will be able to search in a highly structured way -- for example, search for products you once bookmarked that have a price of $10.95 and are on-sale this week. Or search for documents you read which were authored by Sue and related to project X, in the last month.

The semantics of the future desktop will be open-ended. That is to say that users as well as other application and information providers will be able to extend it with custom schemas, new data types, and custom fields to any piece of information.

Interactive shared spaces instead of folders

Forget about shared folders -- that is an outmoded paradigm. Instead, the  new metaphor will be interactive shared spaces.

The need for shared community space is currently being provided for online by forums, blogs, social network profile pages, wikis, and new community sites. But as we move into Web 3.0 these will be replaced by something that combines their best features into one. These next-generation shared spaces will be like blogs, wikis, communities, social networks, databases, workspaces and search engines in one.

Any group of two or more individuals will be able to participate in a shared space that connects their desktops for a particular purpose. These new shared spaces will not only provide richer semantics in the underlying data, social network, and search, but they will also enable groups to seamlessly and collectively add, organize, track, manage, discuss, distribute, and search for information of mutual interest.

The personal cloud

The future desktop will function like a “personal cloud” for users. It will connect all their identities, data, relationships, services and activities in one virtual integrated space. All incoming and outgoing activity will flow through this space. All applications and services that a user makes use of will connect to it.

The personal cloud may not have a center, but rather may be comprised of many separate sub-spaces, federated around the Web and hosted by different service-providers. Yet from an end-user perspective it will function as a seamlessly integrated service. Users will be able to see and navigate all their information and applications, as if they were in one connected space, regardless of where they are actually hosted. Users will be able to search their personal cloud from any point within it.

Open data, linked data and open-standards based semantics

The underlying data in the future desktop, and in all associated services it connects, will be represented using open-standard data formats. Not only will the data be open, but the semantics of the data – the schema – will also be defined in an open way. The emerigng Semantic Web provides a good infrastructure for enabling this to happen.

The value of open linked-data and open semantics is that data will not be held prisoner anywhere and can easily be integrated with other data.

Users will be able to seamlessly move and integrate their data, or parts of their data, in different services. This means that your Webtop might even be portable to a different competing Webtop provider someday. If and when that becomes possible, how will Webtop providers compete to add value?

It's going to be smart

One of the most important aspects of the coming desktop is that it's going to be smart. It's going to learn and help users to be more productive. Artificial intelligence is one of the key ways that competing Webtop providers will differentiate their offerings.

As you use it, it's going to learn about your interests, relationships, current activities, information and preferences. It will adaptively self-organize to help you focus your attention on what is most important to whatever context you are in.

When reading something while you are taking a trip to Milan it may organize itself to be more contextually relevant to that time, place and context. When you later return home to San Francisco it will automatically adapt and shift to your home context. When you do a lot of searches about a certain product it will realize your context and intent has to do with that product and will adapt to help you with that activity for a while, until your behavior changes.

Your desktop will actually be a semantic knowledge base on the back-end. It will encode a rich semantic graph of your information, relationships, interests, behavior and preferences. You will be able to permit other applications to access part or all of your graph to datamine it and provide you with value-added views and even automated intelligent assistance.

For example, you might allow an agent that cross-links things to see all your data: it would go and add cross links to relevant things onto all the things you have created or collected. Another agent that makes personalized buying recommendations might only get to see your shopping history across all shopping sites you use.

Your desktop may also function as a simple personal assistant at times. You will be able to converse with your desktop eventually -- through a conversational agent interface. While on the road you will be able to email or SMS in questions to it and get back immediate intelligent answers. You will even be able to do this via a voice interface.

For example, you might ask, "where is my next meeting?" or "what Japanese restaurants do I like in LA?" or "What is Sue's Smith's phone number?" and you would get back answers. You could also command it to do things for you -- like reminding you to do something, or helping you keep track of an interest, or monitoring for something and alerting you when it happens.

Because your future desktop will connect all the relationships in your digital life -- relationships connecting people, information, behavior, prefences and applications -- it will be the ultimate place to learn about your interests and preferences.

Federated, open policies and permissions

This rich graph of meta-data that comprises your future desktop will enable the next-generation of smart services to learn about you and help you in an incredibly personalized manner. It will also of course be rife with potential for abuse and privacy will be a major function and concern.

One of the biggest enabling technologies that will be necessary is a federated model for sharing meta-data about policies and permissions on data. Information that is considered to be personal and private in Web site X should be recognized and treated as such by other applications and websites you choose to share that information with. This will require a way for sharing meta-data about your policies and permissions between different accounts and applicaitons you use.

The semantic web provides a good infrastructure for building and deploying a decentralized framework for policy and privacy integration, but it has yet to be developed, let alone adopted. For the full vision of the future desktop to emerge a universally accepted standard for exchanging policy and permission data will be a necessary enabling technology.

Who is most likely to own the future desktop?

When I think about what the future desktop is going to look like it seems to be a convergence of several different kinds of services that we currently view as separate.

It will be hosted on the cloud and accessible across all devices. It will place more emphasis on social interaction, social filtering, and collective intelligence. It will provide a very powerful and extensible data model with support for both unstructured and arbitrarily structured information. It will enable almost peer-to-peer like search federation, yet still have a unified home page and user-experience. It will be smart and personalized. It will be highly decentralized yet will manage identity, policies and permissions in an integrated cohesive and transparent manner across services.

By cobbling together a number of different services that exist today you could build something like this in a decentralized fashion. Is that how the desktop of the future will come about? Or will it be a new application provided by one player with a lot of centralized market power? Or could an upstart suddently emerge with the key enabling technologies to make this possible? It’s hard to predict, but one thing is certain: It will be an interesting process to watch.

 

Comments

  • Public Comments

    • Yihong Ding Yihong Ding
      17 months ago


      Nova,

      This is a thoughtful article. Thank you for sharing this intensive thought with us.

      I agree to you that the evolution of the "web desktop" would be an important sign of the next generation Web. In fact, in my series of Web evolution I have predicted that the final formulation of a new generation Web Space (in your term the web desktop) is always the eventual signal of a new evolutionary stage of the Web.

      Moreover, I agree to many of your prediction about the new "web desktop" too. When recently I discussed with Allan Cho, a young but smart new-generation librarian, I shared that if Web 2.0 was about to solve the problem of information overload at Web 1.0, Web 3.0 is about to solve the identity overload at Web 2.0. And I believe that the core of your vision of new "web desktop" is such a solution of identity overload so that Web users can be back to themselves as the managers of their own information in contrast to let the information stored separated all over the varied Web 2.0 sites.

      Will Twine eventually be the platform of such a kind of "web desktops"? It is possible but I can see that there is still quite a long way to go from the current stage of Twine. There must be some mind switch on what a web desktop should be. As you said and I strongly agree, a successful web desktop should not take the current PC desktop as its model. To the end, local PC is naturally a closed world while the Web is a complete open world. Some crucial mind shift must happen here. I am very interested in watching how Twine/RN will step towards this direction in the future.

      best wishes,

      Yihong
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
        17 months ago


        Thanks Yihong. The underlying semantic platform that Twine is built on certainly has a lot of potential to be used to enable the kinds of things I am envisioning in the article above. Twine as a service touches on some of these ideas as well and there is certainly potential to evolve further in this direction. It's not necessarily the endgame for Twine, however. While it would certainly be great, Twine may be just as successful as a service for interest networking (which is only part of the full vision of what the next desktop will enable). Will Twine be just a part of the future desktop, or will it evolve into the framework for the whole thing? It's really too early to tell. But it's an interesting journey!
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Matt Hendry Matt Hendry
      17 months ago


      Im Hoping a little device like the Nintendo Wii can bridge the gap between the Computer and the TV and is a interim step towards new User Interfaces like Multitouch which might seem like cool technology in practice but less practical when you actually use it .

      The Wii remote is the type device that people are already comfortable with so I hope a company like Nintendo sees what is possible with its device and use it to connect to the cloud .Im not the only one that thinks the Wii is revolutionary - The Wii is a social entertainment device http://blog.ffwd.com/?p=38

      Nintendo are smart not to put a whole lot of storage on the device and to keep it low spec they are setting up for a future where people are connected to the cloud or home server/set top box that acts as an edge server to the network .

      If Nintendo don't realize the keys to the future of computing they hold .....someone else will
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
        17 months ago


        So your personal edgeserver would be like your ISP, but just for you? All your other devices would get their internet connectivity through it?
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

        • Matt Hendry Matt Hendry
          17 months ago


          Im talking about a edge server like http://nanodatacenters.eu/ are proposing which would fit right into the future of the desktop and where its going ....... especially the p2p aspect .
          NanoDataCenters is no mickey mouse project it has major funding from the EU and some rather large partners behind them .

          To be honest most content including video games can be delivered via the web and a ISP could include similar functionality in their boxes especially when many devices that have a screen can render a web page .Internet ready TV screens are already available .

          Nintendo's big innovation wasn't the Wii and its limited processor its the Wii Remote
          http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~johnny/projects/wii/

          I can see in the near future where Nintendo licenses the Wii Remote Technology to TV manufactures (I think they have already announced something in Japan ) and Include the Wii remote and UI .There is already a TV guide channel for the Wii in Japan also and with the the market penetration and the focus on the casual gaming crowd I can see them being a major force in the next decade .
          Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Al Wood Al Wood
      17 months ago


      Very interesting article, Nova, and lots of interesting points that I am sure will develop something along the lines you suggest. I did feel on reading it, however, the same old worries about the digital divide resurfacing. The more that is web-based as opposed to desktop-based, the more those of us with slow web connections in developing countries will get left behind. Will everything being up in the cloud leave some of us increasingly earthbound? My connection to the web at work is often unavailable, and I work at a university (I'll spare its blushes and not name it!). At home I have a faster link but it is still very slow compared to Korea, Japan or the US. I am reminded of a post I read once on Always On by some Silicon Valley hotshot who went on holiday to Greece and was amazed at how slow connections were. I had to restrain myself from posting a nasty reply along the lines of "You need to get out more!". Nevertheless, I think those of you involved professionally with the web and with superfast connections perhaps need to remember that most of the world is still way behind in that respect. Granted things are moving fast, but a lot of countries, especially in Africa, can hardly afford the web as it exists now, never mind the future up in the clouds.
      What Is A Twine?

      • shal shal
        17 months ago


        So true ... That's precisely why developers need to elaborate alternative for keeping a given web quality allowing accessible data for people all around the world but also for robots and it can only work with standards.
        What Is A Twine?

    • James Gee James Gee
      17 months ago


      1.Does the future desktop need the support
      of WebOS?
      2.How will industry and academia interact
      with with other on this interesting project?
      3.Can we have a bigger picture about the
      whole situation?
      Web Industry Trends

    • Vegard Ryan Vegard Ryan
      17 months ago


      I'm working some on the development of business dashboards. Where you try to sort out the relevant/important information from a river of data from different sources on the aspects of running a large business.

      A desktop and a dashboard have some similarities. And I have made some mental notes similar to yours thoughts above.
      It is also the reason why I'm interested in Web 2.0/3.0 tools, hoping they will be able to help me out sorting out some of the challenges I'm working on.

      Great article, that confirmed my ideas that web 2.0/3.0 tools/concepts will be helpful, in my quest to get the correct information at the correct time to the correct person.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Harvinder Sawhney
      17 months ago


      Sun research http://research.sun.com/projects/lively/ and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGw09RZjQf8 (a video on the possibilities) shows some glimpses of the future of the desktop. There is an initiative to create a device which has browser as a desktop http://code.google.com/p/es-operating-system/.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Aldo Bucchi Aldo Bucchi
      17 months ago


      What about applications? How do think they will be distributed/discovered?
      Perhaps you are not touching on this point because it comes at a later stage ( first data, attention, then services, action )... but just as an excercise, to complete the picture.
      Using a classical desktop analogy:
      If I right click on a resource ( a JPG image for example ) in my web-desktop, I would like to have some online photo editing services appear in a context menu so I can choose to launch them. Similarly, if I were to drag a product over a person, I would like the system to suggest operations regarding both entities. Some of these operations might come from private services ( my company's CRM, for example ).
      And this is where things start looking like an Operating System. The WebOS.

      ( BTW: remember Haystack? that was a nice controlled environment desktop/shell experiment )
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • Yihong Ding Yihong Ding
        17 months ago


        Aldo,

        I don't believe WebOS can really be success. Operating System is too broad a name to call. More importantly, World Wide Web is an open world upon which no single operating systems may uniformly operate. By contrast, I prefer to call that it might be some particular Web resource operating mechanism (WebROM) exists and varied companies may implement the mechanism in different ways. To the end, the implemented WebROM is to help people better manage resources on the Web in contrast to uniformly operate Web resources as if PC OS operates local resources stored in personal computers.

        Yihong
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

        • Aldo Bucchi Aldo Bucchi
          17 months ago


          "Operating System is too broad a name to call"
          Exactly, so it fits perfectly. ( I think you mean it is too specific, as in "related to a computer with a processor, etc" )

          As Nova says, a website can be a service. It might provide operations and, as long as I can execute them, it is in the system.
          In a sense, the web is *already* an operating system. The problem is that the Shell is mostly US doing all the work ( moving things around, opening accounts, understanding different interfaces, etc ).
          The SW ( in particular, the universal-ness of the IRI and the modeling framework provided by OWL ) provide, for the first time, a solid ground on which we can build truly universal services. ( universal because they are visible to everyone, understandable by everyone, and executable by everyone ).
          I have implemented semantic web services in controlled environments and, when you get close to a hundred, you get to see how a complex Operating System emerges. ( take a look at the Sermantic Web Services initiatives ).

          Now, you are right to say that we will end up with a zillion different approaches to describe services, consume them, etc. That's the nature of the web... but it is also the only way to mantain its neutrality. The economics of participation and liberty.

          I get your point... but WebROM sounds like Read-Only-Memory. I still stick to WebOS ;)
          ( Marketing 101: appeal to what your audience already knows )
          Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

          • Yihong Ding Yihong Ding
            17 months ago


            thank you, Aldo. I think you are right. I have a few confuse mind about your last comment but now I get it better. The Web itself is *already* an operating system. I very much agree to this point you made. Originally I thought that you had suggested to develop a new WebOS (like a Web-version Windows) to operate everything on the Web.
            Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

            • Aldo Bucchi Aldo Bucchi
              17 months ago


              Oh I see.
              Well that's one problem with reusing terms. You never know the degree of "literality" intended. I was not implying that one single vendor should come up with an operating system for the web... although I wouldn't rule any attempts out just yet.
              Thanks for your reply Yihong.
              Best,
              A
              Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
        17 months ago


        I think applications in the future are just websites -- you go to some URL and it is an application. Your desktop IS the browser, and applications are URLs. Some will have old-fashioned static HTML look and feel, but many will become highly dynamic and interactive -- just like desktop apps. But they will be remotely hosted. I'm not sure local storage will matter at all. My guess is storage will be remote. There will be local computation capability on client devices, and this will be leveraged to run applets and scripts locally for example -- but long-term storage will most likely be remote.
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

        • . .•∞º˙ . .•∞º˙
          17 months ago


          how does this work for business? We have several programs that are used hourly, daily, and even all day long. (I run adobe illustrator like a kid eating popcorn at a matinee).

          Does my company pay for access and run as needed? Do we have a seat-license that allows so many users at a given time? Where does that data/image/graphic/file get saved when completed, or even at interim stages before completion to avoid crash loss?

          I'm concerned about corporate policy and functional control. There's a big difference between having the reliability of my own computer to run/operate/save/access files vs. the inherent instability of the internet and my connection to it.

          networks go down all the time. internet connections aren't the "always on" that we would like. My productivity depends on my ability to use the tools/programs at my disposal to create/modify my works. If I have to rely on the functionality of my internet connection to do everything, then every time a thunderstorm rolls in, I might as well pack up and drive home.

          The only advantage I have right now is that the programs I run reside on my computer. Networks are secondary. I can do my thing, save my file, and if/when the network functions, I can transmit that completed data to whomever needs it. But until I can be guaranteed an always on/always accessible connection, I don't want to run my programs through a browser via html. It's too great a risk.
          Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

          • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
            17 months ago


            My guess is as follows:

            Every local device will have a local cache in solid state memory. This will be crash resistant -- it is basically local storage, but limited in scope. Enough to handle everything you are doing in a session, or to save your state while you are offline. In general, while online, I believe there will continual saving of your state to more than one remote location (for backup and fault tolerance) as well as to the local device. That would be better than storing everything locally -- but will require more bandwidth to really work well. A P2P model could also work for this -- where everyone in the network lends a little bit of their device's storage cache to backup encrypted contents of other randomly selected nearby devices. Your device backs itself up continuously in real-time in the cloud.

            I think having guaranteed always-on connectivity will and must happen in the near future, but some local persistent storage will be necessary to cover the edge cases.

            As for licensing policy control -- that will be handled via the SaaS model (software as a service) via subscriptions, per seat / IP licensing, or metering, or ad-suported software in some cases.
            Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

          • frank smith frank smith
            17 months ago


            I've gotta go with rpfiii on this one.

            I need to access to my work at ALL times. I have spent too much time working with networks and the Net to place all my eggs in a basket that is not on my desk.

            I live in a town of 1500 people and I am lucky to get 3.0 Mb DSL. No cable modem option. I have pretty reliable service (maybe 3 outages in 5 years) but a shudder to think of having to wait on throughput to make saves and changes. I could not get a creative flow going with a work and wait environment. It brings back memories of 10+ years ago when I first started learning computer graphics ('Shop, Bryce 3D, 3DSMax, Illustrator, etc.). I had a machine that could run the software, but just barely. i would filter an image, and wait, and look at at it and keep it or not. work and wait and work and wait. It was really hard to get a flow going. It created a lot of limitations on what I would consider to do in a project.
            I have a concern that performance wise it might be a step back in time that I would not voluntarily take.

            Nova, I find a lot of compelling things about your description of the future of desktop. But I wonder if you are considering the scope of activities done by people creating content with computers. A local cache of of solid state memory is big advantage that is improving everyday (check this months IEEE spectrum magazine, pg15 for a good article on advances in solid state drives, Vol 45#7 north america) But a small amount won't work for some content producers. Take video editing that I do sometimes. I have to manipulate, filter, etc Gigabytes of video at a time. I have to store close to half a Terabyte of video and music for soundtracking. I archive some of the old stuff, but it's more efficient for me to keep most of it on the machine rather than moving it on and of the machine. I think Net storage of that much working data requires network speeds that come closer to system bus speeds and reliability approaching what I have in the box under my desk.
            In my opinion, you are accurately seeing a view of the future of content storage, distribution, consumption, and MOST importantly I think your model has the solution to identity management. But content creation, I believe, will still stay local for a while more.

            One issue is security and IPR. With any piece of data, every time it is moved through architecture that you don't control, increases it's odds of being compromised. regardless of encryption, reputation of the data carrier you trust with your data, or speed that it moves into exposure and is then re-secured. It's just a matter of odds.
            Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Pieter J.C. van Everdingen Pieter J.C. van Everdingen
      17 months ago


      My “dream desktop” would be a collection of knowledge portals with a consistent lay-out that would have some fixed content blocks that are relevant for all the contexts, roles and hats I possibly want to wear and variable content blocks that are only relevant within one (or more) context(s) I’m interested in. Working this way a (smart) knowledge portal can dynamically change its “view” once I decide to change my hat given whatever device I would like to use at that moment.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Bent Rasmussen Bent Rasmussen
      17 months ago


      What the Web lacks is often times fast, responsive and sophisticated UX while what the desktop lacks is often the connectedness and sharing that web services such as Twine provide.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • . .•∞º˙ . .•∞º˙
      17 months ago


      Nova-

      You said: " When you do a lot of searches about a certain product ...Your desktop will actually be a semantic knowledge base on the back-end..."

      This aspect of web involvement somewhat frightens me. As I poke around on something, my system (desktop)tailors additional information to me based on what I am reviewing. Who controls that information? I know that from a marketing standpoint, product manufacturers, the movie industry, consumer goods makers, and other related groups, would pay an arm and a leg (and a few heads) for access to and control of that information. What is a potential gold mine for the provider of that service may become a nightmare for the user--everywhere you go, everything you do, becomes a beacon for these groups to pay for the option to push their particular product or service your way WHEN you are interested.

      I happen to be reading an article about traveling to the Bahamas, and suddenly I get pop-ups, flashing banner ads, and blinking "click me" windows for sunscreen, bathing suits, and hangover medication. Now my web experience is nothing more than a full-time advertisement based on what I glance at next. I don't think I want that. I want the ability to say to my system--hey, when I'm doing this particular search/view/interface, please go ahead an allow directed content from third party providers, who are willing to PAY ME for my time, to provide me with whatever information they feel is pertinent to what I am looking at.

      The user needs to be in control of this information exposure, especially when their profile/knowledgebase/data are all out in the open for all to see. If I can't turn on/off or allow access when I deem it ok, then my web use is diminished. We are already giving up so much of our privacy and control over our own lives and activities to the changing environment that is the internet, without the individual authority to allow/deny access to our own information we are at the mercy of the system.

      If on the other hand, my time and my attention are somehow related to financial reward, suddenly the equation changes, and the desire to protect one's privacy vs. the ability to be compensated for relinquishing some of that privacy tilt the scales.

      Don't get me wrong, I think you're heading the right direction with all this, and I can see where a semantically intelligent web interface would be a good solution. I do think that you are defining a path with a VERY rocky road ahead, in terms of interface, collaboration, and integration between old apps, new apps, my excel spreadsheet, that voicemail on my work phone, the note my wife left me on the counter to pick up milk on the way home, my IM from the guy in Hong Kong regarding pizza ingredients, the kids phonecall to be picked up early at school, and my list of things to do in the yard.

      There's a great deal of 'stuff' out there that takes place beyond the desktop, that the desktop of the future needs to include beyond just web pages.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
        17 months ago


        Good points, rpfiii -- there certainly is a lot to figure out. But ultimately I believe my information must be integrated and for that to happen it has to live in the cloud. I agree with you that the user must be in control of their information, and of the inferencing that takes place on top of it on their behalf. That is why I think an essential piece of this infrastructure will be an open model for defining and sharing policy and permission metadata. Users need to be able to make the rules about who can do what with their data, and all other apps and services need to be able to understand and obey these rules.
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

        • Bent Rasmussen Bent Rasmussen
          17 months ago


          What about P2P topologies. Is there a place for distributed semantic search and inference? Or do you imagine giant Google scale datacenters with one massive knowledgebase?
          Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • Aldo Bucchi Aldo Bucchi
        17 months ago


        ( sorry if I am talking too much. I am killing time in a terminal ).

        rpfiii:

        Privacy is a scary topic. Even more when you start realizing that the complexity of the system is such that you can't really understand it. If you can't understand your data ( where it comes from, where it lives, where it is going ), then how can you control it?

        In the end the root problem is not privacy, but the "complexity of its implementation".

        My quick reply is: don't worry. The world is filled with people, so you won't get into trouble alone.
        My longer reply is: don't worry. There's nothing we can do about it.

        My 2 cents ( about complexity ) is that we will never be able to manage all this in a correct way, so, why worry.

        The reasoning is: yes, the world is complicated and, to make it worse, our perception of it is blurry at best. Moving from this blurry world to the logical computer world is a costly transaction ( and non-deterministic ). We need a softer interface to really make this process more comfortable and efficient because, no matter how many PhDs you get on Knowledge Representation and Reasoning, you will never really snap to the grid ( it is not a matter of finding the right grid either ).
        And by softer I don't mean a better UI or a new toy from Cupertino, I mean a totally new approach. Perhaps Jeff Hawkins can eventually bridge this "cortical to logical" gap with HTM technology.

        So, until we have something better, perhaps the only road is to simplify. Brutally.
        One simple way to talk about events. One simple way to talk about people. One simple way to talk about places.

        ( wishful thinking below ).
        Twine and the new players could team up with IORG and device a universal, brutally simplified, one size fits all cognitive model for tasks, events, people, time, etc ( cognitive meaning: data, visual, marketing, copy, etc ).
        I consider myself a power user but I have to admit that information overload has made me go back to the basics lately.

        And that is why I love Google BTW.
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

        • . .•∞º˙ . .•∞º˙
          17 months ago


          "Don't worry. There's nothing we can do about it"--I got a nervous chuckle out of that one.
          This issue of privacy is interesting to me because of two recent items shared earlier this week.
          The first is a rather tongue-in-cheek look at "future-crime" a la Minority Report:

          http://www.twine.com/item/11bnq9s24-q9/a-notice-from-the-bureau-of-public-anomaly-screenings

          The second is a more serious concern being put forth by the American Library Association regarding privacy rights:

          http://www.twine.com/item/11byymb0c-11b/librarians-want-to-turn-us-all-into-privacy-fiends

          Both raise issues regarding control of our actions, as well as what is done with the information gathered. Kinda makes you want to go back to cave paintings and drums.
          Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

          • Aldo Bucchi Aldo Bucchi
            17 months ago


            Yeah, I am just trying to joke my way out of this.
            I don't really know the answer... it is a complex topic, and looks very scary in the long term.
            Specially when you realize that *justice is reactive ( not proactive ) and it moves way slower than the web*!!!.

            I guess what I was trying to say is... You are not alone! We are all in this mess together

            ( does that make you feel better? )
            A

            BTW: first link above works, but the second one is a 404
            Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

            • . .•∞º˙ . .•∞º˙
              17 months ago


              See--they're already watching you and censoring...

              Here's the direct link for #2 above...

              http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080723-librarians-want-to-turn-us-all-into-privacy-fiends.html
              Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

            • . .•∞º˙ . .•∞º˙
              17 months ago


              Flora Moon posted this today to OnLine Marketing...

              http://www.twine.com/item/11c6547sj-11q/behavioral-targeting-and-privacy-emarketer

              Behavioral Targeting and Privacy
              JULY 29, 2008

              Can informed consent put consumers at ease?

              Marketers today must face the ongoing challenge of determining the proper balance between online ad targeting and privacy. However, the general public may be less concerned about the matter than privacy advocates might suggest.

              It's amazing how subject matter becomes relevant in several areas at the same time! Or is our attention just more like a lighthouse beacon, shining in one direction at a time?
              Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Alexey Smirnov
      17 months ago


      The article does a good job on discussing software component of the future desktop. However, hardware is another important part of a future interaction model. Interfaces will become organic, touch-based, user-friendly. You were saying that old desktop will not serve as a model of the future. But look - it is not that old desktop on mobile devices such as IPhone.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Aldo Bucchi Aldo Bucchi
      17 months ago


      I definitely agree with Yihong.
      Twine is great, and ( if it has the right magic going on behind the curtains ) it might be well positioned to become a valuable part of the puzzle in the future.
      We all know ( hope ) that the desktop will eventually merge with the web via linked data and it will become a universal data/identity hub. Identity overload will be delegated ( OpenID et Al ) and data fragmentation will be resolved ( SW ). However, this new level of integration will generate ( or feed ) a fundamental issue: *VOLUME*
      In this context, I honestly think data overload is going to be the real enemy once we reach critical linked-data mass ( 12 months according to Kingsley, and I optimistically agree ). Will Twine provide an immediate solution to this problem? my own personal graph? Will I think of it as my interesting slice of the data web? Can it become the data broker for my knowledge agent?
      If RN can figure out the inner workings of these relevancy ranking algorithms then they might be onto a gold mine.
      Facebook connect you say? hmmmmm. I don't really care about what resources my uncle visits often. Twine is on a better track, it is not about the social graph... it is all about INTERESTS
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • leobard leobard
      17 months ago


      for short, its going to be KDE 4.1's nepomuk combined with silverlight|theguitechnologyofyourchoice.
      And all data hosted on a web service.

      neat!

      one thing is wrong, though: not all applications will be completly web-based and run only inside the browser.
      This is not going to happen in 5 years for all of them, and not in 20 years for all of them.
      Gimp / Mathematica / Architecture Modelling Software / CAT / will remain desktop apps,
      as their value is grown too high to be reprogrammed in web.

      but of course, they all will store in the web / or at least on folders synchronized with CMS systems.
      Web Industry Trends

    • . .•∞º˙ . .•∞º˙
      17 months ago


      Just for fun, here are a few examples of pushing the current definition of a "webspace desktop" using the tools we have today. (I particularly like the Coding Monkey's site, although mirrorbook is interesting, too).

      http://inspiredology.com/office-website-showcase/
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Mills Davis
      17 months ago


      Nova, a couple of comments:

      1. New metaphors bleed desktop, mobile, immersive, reality browsing, and augmented reality (or as William Burroughs said "If you cut into the present, the future leaks out"). Future web cries out for advances in visual language -- semantic integration of word, picture, sound, motion, and gesture — also, trans-linguistic, and trans-semantic syntheses.

      2. Super productivity and labor substitutions -- the future web is about marshaling knowledge (lots of it) and putting it to work. Putting theory (and massive amounts of knowledge) in a computer cries out for simulation. But, then it changes the equation for learning, job mobility, what it means to be "para" vs. "professional."

      3. Power to the edge! -- We love the compute cloud and the glamour of webscale computing, but real knowledge computing (reasoning as humans do with uncertainties, conflicts, values, judgements, trade--offs) will be voraciously declarative and also intensely local, even if federated. The fundamental constraint is the speed of light in jungle gym reasoning over massive knowledge graphs.. There will be new chips, non-Von Neumann architectures. They'll be everywhere, especially at the edge.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Lars Ludwig Lars Ludwig
      17 months ago


      Hm, the Desktop you describe seems to be more or less a personal version of many of the services we use on the Web. The question is whether the 'extended mind' of a personal desktop is the same as the 'search space' provided by the Internet or by a Web service. As a Semantic Web researcher and colleague of mine once put it: I don't need personal knowledge management, because all knowledge is available on the Internet and I can look it up there. Well, this view is overlooking an important function of personal knowledge externalization (it's not exactly the librarian's attitude that you contrast with a daytrader): expressing one's thoughts allows for organizing and reflecting on them and thus creating new thoughts and advancing one's own knowledge. The personal knowledge management part of the desktop metaphor is about enhancing the human thinking-feeling-intending-acting system by expressing oneself.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • . .•∞º˙ . .•∞º˙
        17 months ago


        Al knowledge may be available in Nova's "cloud" as you say Lars. But although the web and it's interface is evolving, we humans are not--or at least not as quickly. Just look at all the filing cabinets in the office: our brains can't store all that knowledge, and we have to break it into organizational subgroups to make recall simpler. Some people like messy piles, some people like things alphabetized, some people like to categorize based on dates or a 'keyword'. In any case, the knowledge management portion is critical in providing easily understandable ways to retrieve that knowledge, and this web Desktop is a natural extension. It needs to stay as familiar to our everyday world as possible, or a great deal of humanity will be left out.

        It is said (in America at least) that our population is aging. Living longer, and with the 'baby boomers' of the 1940's and 50's approaching their 70's, the centerline for age distribution has moved out. I watch my parents (and even some of my older friends and co-workers) struggle daily with computers, technology, the internet, and the ways in which they interface with the changes in our digital world. There seems to be a separation where people on one side of the line 'get it' while those on the other 'don't'.

        We are already seeing a great deal of focus on manufacturing products and developing systems aimed directly at this aging population, and the things that become more relevant/important as we get older. Whatever this Desktop becomes, it should address their needs as well.
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

        • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
          17 months ago


          Good point. I think the future desktop should grow and mature alongside the user. It's their lifestream and agent, and as their cognitive abilities change it should adapt and change as well. Perhaps there would be different interfaces and agents that would come into play at different stages of life.
          Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

        • Jack D. Logan Jack D. Logan
          17 months ago


          Fact-of-the-Day = John McCain is learning to use a computer; he says he's actually beginning to use e-mail!
          Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
        17 months ago


        The future desktop I envision is a sort of "personal cloud" where all your data, relationships and activities come together. It's not the same as the highly fragmented online search space of today. The existence of the personal cloud is a necessary pre-requisite for the eventual realization of Vernor Vinge's "intelligence augmentation" vision.
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • Yihong Ding Yihong Ding
        17 months ago


        Lars (and rpfiii),

        Both of your sharing are interesting. Please forgive my interrupting into the discussion.

        I am particularly sympathetic to Lars' explanation of "personal knowledge externalization". In tradition, W3C SW researchers indeed have too much simplified the issue of knowledge organization by neglecting (or at least underestimating) the variety of individual difference.

        Here is the question. To build an objective web of data is not easy. But to set up projections from the objective web of data to every individual's perspective is harder. Probably from the beginning we have already made something wrong. We need to start from the construction of individual mind instead of from the construction of a web of data. The success of Web 2.0 has shown us that it is much easier to collaborate different humans than to make sophisticated data mappings directly.

        Moreover, as rpfiii mentioned, the embodiment of humanity onto the Web is a complicated issue. It is not just converting human mind to data, but to convert human into all kinds of Web resources. More critically, it is actually the embodied humanities that do matter in contrast to the importance of user generated data. Until now Semantic Web study seems having walked into a wrong direction, which overemphasized data but underestimated humans who "produce", "own", or "consume" the data.

        With respect to the evolution of the Web, aging is actually not a problem. Once we do treat human mind be a new form of circulating asset in the world, aging just makes the asset be more and more valuable. This is thus the gift of thinking given by God.

        Yihong
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

        • Lars Ludwig Lars Ludwig
          17 months ago


          >> . Probably from the beginning we have already made something wrong. We need to start from the construction of individual mind instead of from the construction of a web of data.

          Very good!. - That's actually something I have been thinking about for years. The linked data / web of data hype seems to be a pragmatic reaction to the difficulties of actually constructing artificial minds or artificial memories,as I like to call them, which would seem to me to be the natural bricks of a (social) semantic web. Requirements of thought externalization using textual and visual language (as Mills Davis mentioned above) go beyond what OWL/RDF are able to mark up and what semantic annotation is able to achieve. However, the inclination to step back and start working once again on the foundations of the Semantic Web is not too widespread. I am thus betting on Semantic Web 2.0, lol.
          Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
      17 months ago


      This was just suggested as a related link: http://www.twine.com/item/11c4m0lrb-5v/eyeos-web-desktop-web-os-web-office-your-files-and-applications-everywhere
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • frank smith frank smith
      17 months ago


      Nova,
      I think you are hitting some real truths and feeling the swell of change in the system. I'd like to suggest a couple of things to the pot.

      As to the technology interface that we use (let's drop desktop for a bit, the term limits what we can consider) I think a couple of things will develop this way. on a large personal monitor the change in "desktop" is the addition of the real 3rd dimension. the emergence of MMORPG, Vista's Aero interface, Google Earth,and other 3d interfaces are training people away the faux 3d stacked desktop of the PC era. They are becoming more accustomed to seeing into the monitor, seeing a cube of space rather than a 2d panel. This will continue and evolve.
      On the little screen (mobile devices) the addition of GPS is now taking the user inside the virtual space. They use the device to orient in the physical world and as things develop the Net world will more and more reach out to the user through that small screen in geographically relevant ways.

      These two training modes only need the cheap virtual display devices to overlay the Net onto the Physical world to blend and really bring people inside the Net. See Gibson's Virtual Light for a tech description. See Snowcrash (as well as others) for a avatar driven Metaverse. ( I say this is to spread the word about Gibson and Stephenson, I'm pretty sure you've read them both.)

      As to the function of the interface, I feel the most important hurdle is as you say, the shift from librarian to daytrader. Everyone needs a technology that increases the signal to noise ratio of what they receive from the Net. The more information that is out there (in the current presentation format) the less that comes in is signal, and most becomes noise. Basically, we need an information transceiver that can discriminate the information we want and filter out the rest. It doesn't matter that it all begins as signal, if it all ends up as noise.
      I totally agree that part of the solution in identity consolidation. (see Multipass, The Fifth Element) If I have fifty identities, then I have none. It's all noise. Think in the Physical. If we went to a library and had to provide different identity papers for each aisle of books ( or even a single book) the ridiculousness of the situation would be readily apparent.
      What if Los Angeles was Balkanized and you needed different IDs and visas to move from block to block. Ridiculous! And yet we take it for granted that we will have multiple login to every aspect of our digital lives. Noise. The downside is of course again security. If you only have one key to the house, you can't let anyone get that key. Protection of the individual has to be at the forefront.

      To respond to issues of privacy and the future desktop, I suggest http://www.twine.com/item/11c3qrsq7-hf/david-brin-s-official-web-site-the-transparent-society-chapter-one
      David Brin has a good perspective on the relationship between the individual and public technology.

      Thanks Again for stellar writing and deep thought.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • Nova Spivack Nova Spivack
      17 months ago


      Perhaps the term "desktop" will become obsolete in fact. Some have suggested the term "webtop" which isn't bad.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • frank smith frank smith
      17 months ago


      I thinks so. When we consider the evolution of the technology, consider this.

      The PC was introduced into the business world first. The desktop concept was introduced as the GUI (both Mac and PC) to give a comfortable analogy to the work place. Files, folders, the stacking of pages on the "desk", all to give a foothold to learning how to integrate the power of the computer into the WORKPLACE.

      The web browser evolved to teach people how to extend the desktop concepts they'd become comfortable with beyond the boundaries of their own box on the desk. This is apparent the first time you use a browser to access local files. This learning enables the migration of the PC from the workplace into the home. As users become comfortable with "workplace equivalent" activities for personal use, we begin to move away from the desirability of the "desktop model". This does now open the gates to LOTS more people to use the desktop for enjoyment/enrichment. And the learning continues and the comfort level rises.

      All of this is riding on backs of materials science and manufacturing process evolution. It's a compromise between the limitations of what we can do today and anticipating the capabilities of tomorrow. This balance allows for social adjustment to technological advances.

      It's only the fact that people use the internet to play at work that maintains the viability of the desktop model at home. But we evolve again.

      Processor power and memory cost have advanced to the point of putting content creation into the hands of the masses. And we naturally get Web 2.0. Now things begin to mutate into this cloud of content ( I agree that the information is in a cloud out there) and the limitations of the desktop model become more and more strained. Web 1.0 was mostly a unidirectional content flow. Some people made content and MOST people consumed it. Web 2.0 adds a second dimension, bidirectional flow of content. Blogs, Youtube, social networking, etc.Lots of people are creating content, and more everyday. And the content is not staying on the desktop at home. It's being ported to the HDTV in the living room and downloaded into the Ipod. How many people go on there home desktop to do word processing, spreadsheet, or database? These we're the big three that brought the desktop into the workplace to begin with. Nowadays, most people use their computer as an entertainment machine and a communication device.

      Web 3.0 is the 3rd dimension. we compiled and are creating so much content, that a 2d model (the desktop) begins to really fail. How many of the most exciting UI solutions coming out now show the data in 3D? Why? Because we're building an ocean, a drop at a time. Or more appropriately we are building a space. And for space travel paper maps just don't work. they hinder visualization in this case. To move in 3D, most people need to see things in 3D.

      It's a metaphor shift that is coming. I don't really know what the Internet "space ship" of the future will look like, but it will be far from the desk. The desktop 2D interface will still be there, but it will not dominate, any more than a desk in my home takes up all the space in the house. It will be embedded in a larger 3D environment.

      I like webtop because it implies one is on the surface and can both sail the surface and dive deep into the Web. Maybe it's a submarine and not a spaceship.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • frank smith frank smith
      17 months ago


      Thanks Bro!! Means a lot. I blow glass to maintain balance and have fun, And you'd be surprised the thinking and non-thinking you have to do at the same time to blow glass.

      I love that octopus!! you should see it blow glass.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

    • James Gee James Gee
      17 months ago


      Computer users' needs
      As computers become extremely large in capability yet smaller in size, they will present opportunities for their users while raising interesting and difficult questions.
      By David L Britton, Britton-Lee Inc -- EDN, 10/14/1981
      The first rule for all technologists, as with other professionals, is not to predict the future. Speculation and postulation, however, are allowed. In this context, we can speculate on computing in the beginning of the 21st century. We start with this speculation:

      Small computers won’t exist.

      Almost everything we know about computers today will be obsolete. Computers will have evolved into processors that can do almost any task easily and inexpensively. These computers will be large in capability, but not in size. Very-large-scale integration will reduce the computer to the size needed to perform its function. Therefore, a postulate for the 21st century is:

      Computers will become peripheral.

      To manipulate his environment, man has used tools as an extension of his body limbs and senses. The human tool—man’s hand—is the cutting edge of knowledge. And without using our bodies, senses or tools, we can’t make progress or continue to learn. In other words, no productive work can be achieved without action. However, before we can have action, the mind must be ready to direct that action.
      Most of the activity in the last 500 years, however, has been aimed at directing the use of the limbs and senses. Only recently have we begun to use tools to extend the capabilities of human thought.
      Today’s computers can serve as tools in the factory for controlling production lines or in hospitals for monitoring patient care. The laboratory computer can experiment in the area of human activities. But by the year 2000, society will be different and the needs of computer users will also be different. Users will need more productive work, more enjoyable leisure activities and an improved culture.
      In the 21st century, work will be knowledge based. People won’t work with things, but rather with ideas. Without access to large amounts of information, workers won’t be productive. Most jobs will have a service or information content, and very few jobs will exist that require pure, highly paid skilled or nonskilled manual labor.
      Informing the masses
      Information will therefore have to be made available to everyone in whatever form he or she wishes. But will this happen in 25 years?
      Yes. The tools are available today. We can make information available to anyone. Networks exist to transmit information, and databases exist to store and retrieve it. The user-friendly interfaces to this information network are also available. And although there aren’t any general-use information-service products available yet, IBM and AT&T are rapidly moving in this direction.
      All of this will be a reality in 2006, providing even greater challenges for all of us.
      The question “how” will be answered with an integrated database. All current knowledge will be available to anyone over the network.
      The question “what” finds its answer in a system that won’t exist as a conventional computer. No one will interface with a Von Neuman digital computer. The computer interface could be part of our environment, built into the phone, TV set or in remote sensors, for example.
      But does this speculation involve only solutions and no problems?
      No. The most interesting part of the future will be the problems we’ll have to solve. The important question in 2006 will be “What questions should I ask?” More specifically, what questions make work more productive? What questions make leisure more enjoyable? What questions improve culture?
      You see, although all information will be available for the asking, who will be prepared to ask the right questions? What questions should be asked when all the information in the world is available at your fingertips?
      David L Britton is president and founder of Britton-Lee Inc, a Los Gatos, CA firm that produces an intelligent database machine. He is dedicated to solving the problems of information storage and retrieval. Before starting Britton-Lee Inc, he founded IMI—the company that introduced the first 8-in. Winchester disk drive.
      Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • . .•∞º˙ . .•∞º˙
        17 months ago


        That's amazing--where did you find this, James? And were is Mr. Britton now? We need to invite him to Twine.

        [never mind, found the link...http://www.edn.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6332743&industryid=45989]
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine

      • frank smith frank smith
        17 months ago


        GOOD stuff James! I do disagree with one point made above somewhat.
        "People won’t work with things, but rather with ideas. Without access to large amounts of information, workers won’t be productive. Most jobs will have a service or information content, and very few jobs will exist that require pure, highly paid skilled or nonskilled manual labor."

        I believe that as time progresses and more non skilled activities or tasks that take human ability but are repetitious and soul numbing are replaced by technology, will release more people to work WITH things (materials, techniques, etc.) in creative ways that ( at least for a while) only humans can. I'd point out glassblowing, but it's so much broader in scope. from unique foods, to music, to new inventions, and cultural explorations.

        Where the future information economy will help artists, inventors, and average folks with something creative to add flourish is in the EXCHANGE of ideas and the teaching of SKILL.

        Early on I was taught a simple definition to gauge the level of civilization that a society is at. count the ratio between people producing food and those doing everything else. The more the ratio weights towards the non food producers is the more civilized the society is.

        If we extend this logic, technology can provide a society which allows the maximum amount of creative interaction between humans with a minimum of human "robot work".

        How will value be applied to information for exchange? That's the one to figure out. Ditch digging by hand is considered "unskilled" labor by anyone who hasn't had to dig 200 meters of 10 cm x 25 cm irrigation ditch. It takes very specific skills. But I'd rather see a power ditch digger digging ditches and the same "unskilled" worker creating a new recipe, or writing a story, or just philosophizing about the Nature of Life.
        Nova Spivack - My Public Twine
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